Fantasy Baseball Breakdown

By Mike Brody
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
The Six-Month Grind
We’re three weeks into the 2006 baseball season, and if your fantasy team looks anything like mine, you’re ready to unload half of your roster. I know it’s hard, but be patient. The worse thing you could do right now is panic and make a bad trade or drop a good player.
Baseball, more than any other sport, is driven by statistics. It’s a long season with a lot of ups and downs for most players. In the end, the numbers usually even out. If you stick with your guys long enough, they should come around and start producing like you expected them to.
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Off to a Hot Start
While it’s very difficult to watch your team stumble out of the gate (as I’m writing this, my offense is a collective 0-15 today and I’m about ready to have a fire sale), there was a reason why you drafted these guys. If you were lucky enough – or smart enough, depending on how you look at it – to draft Chris Shelton, Jonny Gomes or Nick Swisher, you’re probably at the top of your league, right now. But are these guys really going to lead the league in home runs?
Manny Ramirez hit his first two home runs of the season, last weekend. Mark Teixeira and Richie Sexson have three and two homers, respectively, through the first three weeks. These guys are all perennial 40-home-run-hitters, and barring injury, you can be sure that they will get their numbers by the season’s end.

Waiting for the Right Time
Everyone’s heard the cliché “buy low, sell high.” It’s sound advice. Knowing the right time to deal that guy who’s off to a hot start is the key to making this happen. There’s no way Shelton, Gomes and Swisher are going to keep up the pace they’ve set so far – Shelton’s already started to slow down – but how can you not ride their hot streaks a little longer? Just don’t wait too long if you’re planning on dealing them.
Knowing players’ trends is another key in making the right deal at the right time. Some players are traditionally slow starters, like Ramirez and Jim Edmonds, and trading for them at the end of their slow start could mean big stats for you the rest of the way. A lot of hitters heat up when the weather does too, so they could be busting out of these slumps any day now.
On the Rise
Targeting players who are showing signs of breaking out is another key to making the right roster adjustments. Here are a few players who might be available and could definitely help some teams:
Josh Barfield – The rookie second baseman has excelled since being moved to the No. 2 spot in the Padres lineup. He’s got his average over .300 and has 2 HRs and 6 steals. Grab him if he’s still available.
Ty Wigginton – Playing for his third team in four years, the journeyman third baseman seems to have found a home in Tampa Bay. He’s taken advantage of Aubrey Huff’s knee injury and already has 8 home runs and 20 RBI. Playing in hitter-friendly Tropicana Field should help, too. Ride him while he’s hot. Brad Hawpe – The Colorado Rockies outfielder has established himself as the everyday right fielder and is firmly entrenched in the heart of the Rockies lineup. He’s batting over .340 and already has slugged 5 HRs. The 2000 College World Series MVP is well on his way to a .300-30-100 season. You never can go wrong having a Rockie in your lineup.
The Pitching Hole
While there is plenty of time to make up ground on offense, falling behind in the pitching categories – especially ERA and WHIP – can be a killer. Avoiding those complete disasters in the early season is a key to remaining competitive on the mound.
With pitchers, it’s all about the matchups. Don’t be afraid to bench one of your better pitchers for a riskier play if the matchup is right. Throwing a marginal starter against Kansas City or Pittsburgh is always better than having just about any starter face the Yankees or pitch at Colorado.
Whether you find yourself at the top of your league or at the bottom of the pack after these first three weeks, don’t stop looking to make your team better. Stocking your bench with productive players who could be used as trade bait is always a good idea. The inevitable injuries will come, and having players to step in during those times will help you avoid having to make a desperate deal. Bet MLB Baseball Player and Game Propositions @ WagerWeb.com Sportsbook

Michael Brody

Writer/EditorWagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
Mike has been writing and reporting on sports for 14 years.
He started his career as a sports writer and radio broadcaster at Cal State Northridge. Mike has written for the Los Angeles Daily News and has been a writer/editor for KNBC in Los Angeles, where he worked on the nightly sportscast with Fred Roggin. He also wrote and edited material for NBC network specials and has more than 10 years of online journalism experience. Although he lives in Southern California, Mike was born and raised in the Boston area and is a diehard fan of all the Boston professional teams.

Tampa Bay Devil rays at New York Yankees

Tuesday, April 25th, 2006 7:00 PM ET

New York Yankees:
OF Hideki Matsui played his 500th consecutive game with the Yankees the favorite team in all the Sportsbooks in almost every baseball game. Matsui started in left field on Tuesday, that is the team's longest streak since Lou Gehrig's legendary string of 2,130 games from 1925-39.
OF Bernie Williams, has gone 173 at-bat without hitting a home run, counting the playoffs last season. He has not homered since hitting two against Kansas City in Aug. 26. OF Johnny Damon, and SS Derek Jeter have hit safely in the11 of the 12 games this season.
2B Robinson Cano is 6 of his last 12 turns at bat. "I've been working in the cage before games a lot," said Cano, who was having trouble with pitches on the outside corner of the plate. "I'm going with the pitch now. I feel a lot better."
LHP Mike Myers has pitched five scoreless innings over his eight appearances this season. He has allowed two hits with one walk and five strikeouts. "He's been very valuable," manager Joe Torre said. "I can use him every day."
Tampa Bay Devil Rays:
RHP Chad Orvella was unexpectedly sent to Triple-A at the end of the spring to work on a few mechanical adjustments; including reducing the time of his delivery to home plate. Apparently he got it done, because the Devil Rays recalled him to join.
The Rays' 7-6 record is the second-best 13-game start in their history, surpassed only by an 8-5 mark in their inaugural 1998 season.
Hitting coach Steve Henderson's seems to be working well with the Rays, "We've talked about attempting to strike out less, and by striking out less sometimes you walk more," manager Joe Maddon said.
The Rays didn't have a starter for Saturday's game in Texas, which meant another roster move and also a dip into their bullpen. RHP Jason Hammel was optioned to Triple-A after Sunday's game, and LHP Mark Hendrickson is not expected to be recovered from the supposedly mild shoulder stiffness that landed him on the DL.
SS Julio Lugo, sidelined since Opening Day by an abdominal strain, is not expected to be ready to come off the disabled list for this week. He is likely to stay in St. Petersburg to play in extended spring.

Waiting for Take-Off

By J.D. Jackson
Wagerweb.com Contributing Writer

You would not know it by their 10-4 record through the first two-and-a-half weeks of play, but the Houston Astros need Roger Clemens pitching for them.

It’s not too often that you read about a team needing a 43-year-old pitcher to have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, but Clemens is not a pitcher who comes along that often. At 42, he put together one of his more stunning seasons in his illustrious 22-year career by going 13-8 with a 1.87 ERA, striking out 185 batters and walking just 62 in 211.3 innings. While Chris Carpenter won the Cy Young for the National League, last season (Clemens finished third behind Carpenter and Dontrelle Willis), his 2005 was one of his three or four best seasons over the course of his career (better than his 2004, in which he did win the Cy Young Award). His 1.008 WHIP was the second-best in his career (bested only in 1986), his 1.87 ERA was the best in his career, and his 44 earned runs allowed was also the best in his career with a minimum of 100 innings pitched. And he was 42.

Clemens tired down the stretch. He labored his way through the playoffs, going 4-3 while helping guide the Astros to the World Series. It was clear that Clemens had worn down, and an injured Clemens posted a 13.50 ERA in his lone outing as the Astros were swept by the Chicago White Sox. Had Clemens not been injured and tired, the history books might remember the 2005 season a little differently.

Without Clemens, this season, Houston is winning games by mashing the ball, which is not something that the ’Stros are accustomed to. They are second in the National League in team average, fourth in home runs, tied for second in runs scored, and second in OPS. This is largely the same team that finished near the bottom in all of those categories in 2005. Though Roy Oswalt continues to prove that he is an ace pitcher, and Brandon Backe has surprised early on, Andy Pettitte has struggled to a 1-2, 6.35 ERA start. Wandy Rodriguez has started off well, but he is a guy who would come out of the bullpen, ideally. Ezequiel Astacio, the Astros’ emergency starter in the 2005 playoffs, has been downright pathetic in his two appearances, this season. The presence of Clemens allows everyone to shift down a spot in the rotation: Oswalt becomes the #2, Pettitte becomes the #3, Backe becomes a #4, and then the Astros can choose between Rodriguez, Astacio, or Taylor Buchholz for the fifth spot. The rotation goes from being second-best in its own division (behind the Cardinals’ deep rotation) to becoming the best rotation in the game, simply by adding Clemens. Assuming that the Cardinals turn it on like they are able to do, assuming the Mets continue to play spectacular baseball while the Braves play their normal brand of solid ball…the Astros without Clemens will have a hard time winning even the Wild Card. The offense just is not good enough, and the pitching just is not deep enough.

The possibility still exists, of course, that Clemens will rejoin the Astros in May. That period exists because the Astros did not offer Clemens arbitration. There are other teams, though less realistic, in the mix. The Red Sox have spoken to Clemens, but here’s to doubting that you will ever see Clemens back in a Red Sox uniform. It is awfully hard to cross a river when you have burned just about every single bridge that leads back to the other side. The Texas Rangers are also interested and seem more than willing to pay any amount of money required to get Clemens to pitch in Arlington. It is just not evident that Clemens reciprocates those feelings, though pitching for the Rangers would satisfy his requirement of staying close to home. The Yankees have called, as well, but Clemens left the Yankees to return home; it is unlikely that Clemens would leave home to return to the Yankees.
Besides that, Clemens’ leaving the Astros for any of those teams would leave a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths. Clemens went to Houston to pitch specifically for the Astros. He wanted to be close to his home, close to his family, and able to spend more time away from the game while still competing. In other words, while he was getting paid the highest salary of his career ($18 million in 2005), Clemens was not doing it for the money. The man has made $121 million over the course of his career in salary alone. If he became the latest Yankee hired gun, it would be a disgusting act to many, many people.
No, the only place where Clemens truly fits is in Houston. And though there was some tension about the Astros’ not waiting on Clemens’ decision about retirement and not offering him arbitration, it is apparent that Clemens would return to Houston in May after taking the first month of the season off. It would allow Clemens to continue resting, the entire month of April, essentially adding a month onto his stamina and effectiveness in 2006, assuming that he is healed completely (and after a 1-1, 2.08 ERA, 0.81 WHIP in two starts during March’s World Baseball Classic, it is safe to assume that he is the same old Rocket). For Houston, the equation is simple: Clemens equals another trip deep into the playoffs, while no Clemens might mean no playoffs at all for 2005’s National League Champions.
Even at 43, Clemens still makes all the difference in the world.

MLB early season observations

By Brad Halfond
Wagerweb.com Contributing Writer

Is there a more dominant threat to opposing pitchers in the National League than Albert Pujols?

The monster slugger has lit up scoreboards early in the season and sent several managers home wondering why they ever challenged the 26-year-old future Hall of Famer.

Pujols’ nine dingers lead the league and this guy must be now considered, along with Alex Rodriquez, one of the best players in baseball. Pujols clearly leads the list of standout individual performances as the 2006 baseball season gets underway.

Other players making an early impact in the senior circuit include David Wright, the steady third baseman on the resurgent New York Mets, and Ryan Langerhans of the Atlanta Braves. Both of those teams should stay in the hunt for the NL East title as the Mets will try to break the stranglehold on the division that Bobby Cox and Atlanta have maintained for more than eleven years.

But back to Pujols. We kind of had a hint that this would be his year from the way he ended the 2005 season with that massive blast that gave the Redbirds a victory over Houston in game five of last year’s NLCS.

Now Pujols has a new stadium to play in, fans who love and adore him, and the serious potential to reach 60 home runs this season. The only thing that Pujols needs is for his Cardinals to reach the heights that the White Sox did last year and win their first World Series title since 1982.

A few hundred miles to the north is the sleeping giant known as the Milwaukee Brewers. This is a team that has already surprised some with its ability to come back; if they can get their bats heated up with the weather, they could challenge for a wild card berth.

Overall, the early theme of the 2006 season might be parity. The Cardinals lost pitching and won’t be as dominant this year, while the NL West should continue to be mired in mediocrity. Unless the New York Mets can keep up their hot start and add an arm or two in mid-season, this league is definitely up for grabs.

It’s still too early to tell what will happen in the American League, but the usual contenders are starting to emerge. The Red Sox have their energetic new pitcher, Josh Beckett, and Curt Schilling appears to be at full strength, while the Yankees are going to rely on the older arms of Mussina and Johnson. Boston has more speed in 2006, while New York’s bullpen is practically brand new.

If you’re looking for early season surprises in the American League, that honor goes to Chris Shelton of the Detroit Tigers. This kid might revitalize the entire city of Detroit and bring baseball back to a somewhat competitive level. It is very uncommon for an unknown player like Shelton to be hitting with such power. Shelton had hit only 19 home runs in his previous 434 at-bats and now he is leading the league in long balls. Shelton is doing all this from the sixth position, but expect him to move up to the cleanup spot eventually.

The team to watch in the AL is Oakland, with its fearsome trio of Chavez, Thomas, and Bradley. If those guys stay hot and the young arms produce, Oakland will have a great chance to top Anaheim and win the West. The White Sox also have a good chance of repeating, but for the sake of our sanity, I would rather listen to Metallica than Ozzie Guillen any day.

What would the early season be without a mention of Barry Bonds? The Giants slugger has been getting more publicity off the field lately and maybe that is why his hitting and home runs (none yet) are starting to suffer. The other explanation is that Barry is just getting old and all of his various injuries have added up to Bonds becoming not quite the player he used to be. In the end, I’m going to say Barry hits about 25–30 home runs and retires after the season but before he has a chance to pass Hank Aaron for the all-time lead. Would that make Commissioner Selig happy?

Here are some of my observations on the opening weeks of the season around baseball.

New Busch Stadium – I can see the Arch more clearly, but did they even try to make it look different than old Busch stadium?

Giants’ outfield – Pass the Geritol. If these guys last the entire season then McCovey Cove will freeze over.

Pedro – The guy has nerves of steel and will continue to be successful unless a manager steps up and throws a ball near his head. He takes way too many liberties with players, with fewer consequences than any other pitcher I've ever seen.

Soriano – Shhhh …. They don’t want you to play 2B because they have an all-star there already and somebody in management must have watched a film of you bobbling balls in the Bronx for two seasons.

Marlins – and this hasn’t moved yet because….

Upcoming Devil Rays’ name change suggestion – Flounders

Beckett – Okay, we get it, you’re excited and happy that you struck somebody out. Bring that act to the Bronx and see what kind of reaction you will get.

Jeter – How come this guy doesn’t have a bubble gum endorsement contract yet? Hubba Bubba, are you listening?

Rivera, Yanks stunned by Twins

MINNEAPOLIS -- Everything seemed to be going right for the Yankees on Saturday night.
They had overcome a four-run deficit against Johan Santana, their bullpen had thrown five scoreless innings after a rocky start by Jaret Wright and the offense came through with some clutch hits, giving New York a one-run lead heading into the ninth inning.
Then the Minnesota Twins scored twice against Mariano Rivera.
Justin Morneau's two-out, two-run walk-off single stunned the Yankees, who dropped a 6-5 decision to the Twins in front of 42,316 at the Metrodome.
"It's certainly a tough loss," said manager Joe Torre. "The day this type of game doesn't bother me is the day I should go home."
"It's big -- to come back on him, he's one of the best closers in the history of the game, not just right now," Morneau said. "He's been in that situation a lot of times, and he's usally the one that wins, so it's nice to see us shaking hands instead of them."
Rivera had entered the game in the eighth with one out and a runner on first, but he quickly got Shannon Stewart to ground into a double play, moving the one-run game to the ninth.
The Yankees had an opportunity to extend the lead after Johnny Damon walked, stole second and moved to third on Derek Jeter's sacrifice bunt.
Gary Sheffield had a tough 13-pitch at-bat against Juan Rincon, fouling off seven consecutive pitches before eventually striking out.
"You have to give Rincon credit," said Torre. "He kept coming at him, and eventually he won the battle."
Alex Rodriguez, whose RBI single in the seventh had put the Yankees ahead, 5-4, popped out to end the ninth, leaving Rivera and the Yankees three outs from a win.
"I need to do more -- I know what I'm capable of doing," Rodriguez said. "I'm a very important part of this lineup, and I feel when I'm swinging the bat really well, the team does a lot better. I need to pick it up."
Rivera opened the ninth with two quick strikes against Luis Castillo. On the 1-2 pitch, Castillo appeared to swing and miss, but third-base umpire Ed Montague (who missed a call at the plate on Friday night) ruled that Castillo checked his swing.
Castillo hit a soft bouncer toward the third-base line, where Rivera fielded it and fired to first, but Castillo beat the throw by a step.
"Definitely, I thought it was a strikeout, but you can't change that," Rivera said. "That play is over, so you have to get the next guy."
"Mo did exactly what he wanted to do," Jeter said. "He gave up a hit that went about three feet."
Torre was fuming over the Castillo call, saying that the umps gave him "an extra strike."
Joe Mauer also fell behind Rivera, 1-2, and once again, it appeared that Rivera struck him out on a pitch that home-plate umpire Jerry Layne called a ball. Mauer then singled to left, moving to second as Hideki Matsui tried unsuccessfully to throw Castillo out at third.
"We thought he had the first two guys struck out," Damon said. "Unfortunately, things didn't go our way."
With runners at second and third and no outs, Rivera struck out Rondell White and Torii Hunter, bringing him one out away from avoiding disaster.
"I'll take my chances with Mo in the ninth with two outs," Torre said. "Or nobody out, for that matter."
"We were right in the position we wanted to be in -- ninth inning with Mo," Jeter said. "Even when they got the first couple of guys on, you still like your chances."
Morneau swung at the first pitch, blooping a broken-bat single into right field, just out of the reach of Robinson Cano. Castillo and Mauer scored, giving the Twins their fifth win in a row.
"I'm human -- all I do is try to do my job," Rivera said. "When I don't do it, the way it happened today, it's out of my control. He put the ball in play and it happened to find a hole. I wish I could take it back, but I can't. You move on."
The ninth-inning meltdown negated what would have been a great win for New York, which found itself in an early 4-0 hole against Santana.
Minnesota plated three against Wright in the second inning, then tacked on another in the fourth to hand the former Cy Young Award winner a healthy lead.
But thanks to the efforts of Scott Proctor, who threw 3 1/3 scoreless innings, the Yankees' offense chipped away at Santana with two runs in the fifth to cut the lead in half.
"[Proctor] gave us a chance to get back into the game," Torre said. "Jaret struggled, but we kept fighting back against a good ballclub."
New York broke through in the seventh, putting runners at second and third with one out after Damon doubled against Santana. Jeter followed with a two-run single, and Rodriguez gave the Yankees the lead with an RBI single, putting them in position for their first one-run win of the season.
"It's a tough loss," Damon said. "We're 5-6, but we'll get over it. We have 151 to go; we're going to be fine. This team is very good.
"We have to try to forget this as quickly as we can," he added. "Hopefully we can get Mo a chance tomorrow."

Big Apple: Jeter's homer lifts Yankees

NEW YORK -- On Opening Day at Yankee Stadium, there was no more fitting ending.
The Yankees struggled through the first seven innings, blowing a three-run lead against the Royals in what looked to be another brutal loss for New York.
Enter Derek Jeter.
The Yankees captain made sure the sellout crowd of 54,698 went home happy, belting a game-winning three-run home run in the eighth, lifting the Yankees to a 9-7 win.
"He's always had a flair for the dramatic," said Bernie Williams, whose RBI single in the eighth helped keep the Yankees rally going. "A day like this, it's just the way he is. It doesn't surprise me."
"I've been watching this kid for 11 years," said manager Joe Torre. "It seems when something needs to happen, he's at the start of it or the finish of it. He's been as consistent as anybody."
Jason Giambi also contributed a three-run homer, as the Yankees pulled to within one game of .500 at 3-4.
"It seems like the season hasn't officially started until we play our home opener," Jeter said. "Any time you have a chance to do something special, it means a lot -- especially on Opening Day."
Giambi gave the Yankees a quick lead with his first-inning blast off Joe Mays, his first of the season, and the Yankees took a 4-1 lead into the fourth.
Chien-Ming Wang, who got eight of his nine outs in the first three innings on ground balls, lost his effectiveness in the fourth, allowing four hits (including Reggie Sanders' solo homer) and a walk, as the Royals tied the game at 4.
Wang tossed a scoreless fifth, but a walk and two singles in the sixth put the Royals ahead, 5-4. In six innings, Wang allowed five runs on eight hits, walking two and striking out one.
"He was getting ground ball after ground ball, then he elevated a couple of pitches and they let him know about it," Torre said. "I thought he threw the ball good when he had the location he needed."
Kansas City promptly extended the lead against Tanyon Sturtze in the seventh, as Shane Costa belted a solo shot on Sturtze's first pitch. Mark Grudzielanek doubled, scoring on Sanders' RBI single, boosting the lead to 7-4.
Andrew Sisco opened the bottom of the eighth on the mound for the Royals, but instead of attacking, the Yankees remained patient. Giambi worked a leadoff walk, Hideki Matsui singled and Jorge Posada walked, loading the bases.
Robinson Cano hit into a fielder's choice, forcing Giambi home to cut the lead to two runs. Bernie Williams, who had run the Yankees out of a potential rally in the fourth on what he called a "brain cramp," got some redemption with an RBI single, slicing the deficit to one run.
That set the stage for Johnny Damon, playing his first game in the Bronx as a member of the Yankees. Kansas City brought in closer Ambiorix Burgos, who struck Damon out on three pitches for the second out.
"I had a real good feeling about Johnny slapping a double into the gap or something," said Alex Rodriguez. "What makes our lineup tough is that if it's not one guy, it can be another."
In this case, it was Jeter's turn to give his team a lift. The captain pounced on a first-pitch splitter that stayed up in the zone, drilling it into the left-field seats to give the Yankees a 9-7 lead.
"The captain bailed us out," Williams said. "He knows how to perform in situations like this. I would have been surprised if he didn't do anything."
"Derek Jeter picked up the whole team with one swing of the bat," Damon said. "It's definitely going to be much easier for me to sleep."
Scott Proctor (1-1) pitched a scoreless eighth and earned the victory. Mariano Rivera tossed a scoreless ninth to pick up his first save of the season.
The win marks the ninth consecutive victory in a home opener by the Yankees, snapping a tie with the 1920-27 team for the longest such streak in franchise history.
"It's fun to win one like this at Yankee Stadium any time," Torre said. "But Opening Day made it special."

Yankees open floodgates on Zito, A's

OAKLAND -- Let the Murderers' Row comparisons commence.
If the Yankees' lineup is expected to mount a charge at 1,000 runs this season, Monday night was a good start for the Bombers.
New York handed Oakland a 15-2 pounding on Opening Day, using a seven-run second inning to chase Barry Zito from the game in the shortest start of the former Cy Young Award winner's career.
"Tonight was a special night," said Johnny Damon, who went 3-for-7 with two runs scored in his first game as a Yankee. "If this is any indication, this is going to be a fun year."
"You're excited to play Opening Day, and you know that we're capable of doing all the things we saw tonight," said manager Joe Torre. "It was great just to see it happen."
Alex Rodriguez's grand slam was the big blow of the second inning, while Hideki Matsui added a three-run shot as part of a four-run fourth inning. Matsui finished the night with four hits and four RBIs, reaching base in all six of his plate appearances.
Every Yankees starter except Jorge Posada had at least one hit, and even Posada reached base three times. Five different Yankees posted multihit games, while six different baseball players drove in runs.
"I think this is a very unique year for us," Rodriguez said. "We have a hungry bunch. I see a different attitude this year."
Randy Johnson was the beneficiary of the run support, earning his second consecutive Opening Day victory for the Yankees. The Big Unit allowed one run in seven innings, capturing career win No. 264.
The Yankees pounded out 17 hits, took nine walks and had three batters reach base after being hit by pitches. New York started its second-inning outburst with a pair of walks and three singles, going station-to-station while taking a 3-0 lead.